BMW was seen as a laggard in retaining hybrid flexibility – but several naysayers have now followed suit
Just ahead of his elevation to the position of CEO at BMW in 2019, then production head Oliver Zipse spoke at an event at the Mini plant in Oxford about the need for caution when it came to EVs.
“Flexibility is key,” he told journalists. “If we predict the success of 3 Series, we can be pretty much spot-on. To predict electro-mobility is much more difficult.”
Five years later BMW is reaping the rewards of its more circumspect strategy. In July the company actually sold more electric cars in Europe than the global EV leader Tesla, according to market research firm Jato Dynamics.
But BMW’s electric cars are even today still just adapted versions of combustion engine models, built on the same production line.
Back in 2019, BMW stood in opposition to Volkswagen Group, who was about to show the first model on its all-electric MEB platform built in a plant outfitted for just that platform. Indeed, the ousting of Zipse’s predecessor Harald Krueger was widely attributed to his failure to provide clarity on BMW’s own electric strategy after becoming a pioneer with the well-liked but costly i3.
BMW gambled on a cautious approach. Rather than redesigning the car to unlock the potential of the electric drivetrain, for example by liberating more cabin space as VW claimed, BMW offered electric as just another drivetrain choice. “You won’t feel difference as a customer. You maybe will find 2kg here and 2kg there, but that is not relevant for a buying decision,” Zipse said back in 2019.
Fast forward five years BMW is not only Europe’s number two EV seller behind Tesla year-to-date, but profits are buoyant at 3.7 billion euros in the second quarter to the end of June, translating into a margin of 10.5%. Zipse has earned his boast about the firm’s achievements. “Many years ago, we bet on the right strategy to be as flexible as possible,” he said on the company’s second quarter earnings call. “You’re better prepared if you have ultimate flexible portfolio and an ultimate process competence to react to these things.”
This much cheaper strategy is now seen as the gold-standard for companies as they recalibrate for a lumpier demand in electric vehicles than expected. “Car companies at the moment are forced to work with two three drivetrains, BEV, hybrid or ICE. What we see is that flexibility is very valuable,” Ingo Stein, head of the automotive division for the Bain & Company consultancy, “You can balance the demand shift much easier than a company that produces different cars with different drive trains.”
In Europe and particularly the US, companies are shifting more of their production to hybrids after the expected EV boom hasn’t materialised at the speed first envisaged after Tesla’s original spectacular stock rise.
Hyundai for example is switching its planned new electric-only “Metaplant” in Georgia, US, to build hybrids as well to bridge what it calls the “chasm” to EV demand. “We’ve seen very clearly a trend in the market demanding more hybrid, so we decided to be flexible and introduce hybrid into our Metaplant,” Jaehoon Chang, President and CEO of Hyundai Motor Company, told investors late in August.
Hyundai is projecting to sell 1.33 million hybrids globally by 2028, up 40% on its previous plan. It also plans a rollout of extend-range electric vehicles (EREVs).
Ford is another looking for flexible options after delaying plans for an all EV plant in Tennessee on the cancellation of its previously announced three-row (ie seven-seat) electric SUV. “You have to have a compelling product roadmap and you have to have very flexible manufacturing,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said on the company’s second quarter earnings call.
Ford’s van strategy has embraced that flexibility at its plants in Turkey, where the Transit Custom and related VW Transporter are built as plug-in hybrid, EV or diesel on the same line.
Plenty of other manufacturers have adopted the flexible approach too. Stellantis even builds a fuel-cell version of its ‘K-Zero’ line of midsize vans including the Opel Vivaro at its plant in Hordain, France, alongside electric and diesel versions. Stellantis said this was done in accordance with its “ethical desire not to separate its electric and internal combustion engine businesses, to engage all its employees in the energy transition”.
Unplanned flexibility however can be expensive, especially when you were banking on EVs forming a greater portion of sales earlier in the cycle. Jaguar Land Rover for example announced earlier this year it had increased its five-year investment plan from £15 billion to £18 billion after the slower-than-predicted EV take-up forced it to boost spending on flexible platforms that allow combustion engines as well as electric.
The hike to £18 billion is “partly because we are having to invest more in keeping the parallel running of flex vehicles BEV vehicles and ICE Vehicles going for longer than we anticipated as the industry trend towards BEV globally starts to slow down from previous expectations,” JLR chief financial officer Richard Molyneux told analysts at the company’s investor day in June.
JLR is continuing to build combustion engine models at its Halewood plant, home of the Range Rover Evoque and Land Rover Discovery Sport, even after it begins production of electric models on a new platform.
JLR’s tardiness into the EV market is a good thing, the company said. “Many competitors have placed their bets, done their investment, launched their cars and quite a few have regretted it. It’s one of the advantages of being a follower rather than being first in the market,” Molyneux said.
Volvo meanwhile has been forced by customer demand to upgrade its XC90 large SUV and extend production at its Torslanda, Sweden, plant after initially saying it would be replaced by the new electric EX90. It also will extend the life of other combustion and hybrid models even as it rolls out EVs on new platforms. “In this transition period from an ICE world to a BEV world, we can temporarily have a broader product portfolio,” Björn Annwall said during an investor event September 4.
Ultimately carmakers are having to commit to dedicated electric platforms as they seek to extract all the cost and technology benefits that come from dumping the multi-fuel approach.
BMW for example next year will launch the first of its models on the dedicated Neue Klasse electric platform, expected to be an electric SUV previewed by the X concept.
BMW is investing €2 billion in the new battery-making and assembly operations for the Neue Klasse at a plant in Hungary.
BMW hopes the Neue Klasse cars, with their promised 800-volt architecture enabling fast charging, will be appealing enough to drive sales to the point they can sustain whole plants, but the gamble remains.
Ultimately companies are still dealing with the same unpredictable nature of the EV transition as Zipse highlighted back in 2019. Waiting for a long as possible to scrap profitable combustion engine models will help them navigate that.
