Forecast predicts fights over the most sought-after ICE models and higher demand for hybrids as EV sales swell
The volume of ICE cars entering the used car market is set to decline by as much as 69% by 2028 as car makers prioritise EV sales to hit government-legislated targets, Cox Automotive has forecasted.
This has prompted Cox to call on dealers to “prepare now” or be left behind as more EVs begin to trickle into the used car parc, replacing the more sought-after ICE cars.
Dealers will also start to fight for the most in-demand stock, predicts Cox – especially as its data shows that 3.1 million fewer cars have been made since 2020 than in the four years preceding it, due to Covid.
The forecast, which compared the previous four years of new and used car sales with the upcoming four years, also picked out other standout topics, such as how the car parc will change, why hybrids should be the key target for dealers and the future of diesel.
Prepare now or be left behind
“If you’re a dealer looking now at a forecourt that’s 90% ICE vehicles, consider how that will look 12 months from now and another year on from then, knowing that the availability of ICE vehicles is shrinking at a rate of 10-16% a year going forward. Can you sustain that stock profile?” asked Cox’s insight director, Philip Nothard.
He said those who don’t risk being overtaken by those who do, reasoning: “The numbers can’t be ignored.”
Those numbers predict that by 2028, ICE cars’ share of registrations (excluding hybrids) will drop from 71% to just 38%.
Despite the warning, Cox predicts that the used market will grow by as much as 11% by 2028. This means that those who act now to target EV stock could be rewarded, especially as Cox expects the powertrain’s registrations will grow 160% on 2020-2023 to 1.4 million (a 34% share, up from today’s 13%).
Nearly new ICE cars to be “long gone”
While they continue to be the most sought-after powertrain in the used market (taking 94.3% of sales in 2023, according to the SMMT), ICE vehicles in the 0-4 years old bracket will be “long gone” before sales of new examples are banned in 2035.
Key to this is car makers moving away from combustion and investing in fully electric line-ups (Vauxhall, for example, will go EV-only by 2028) and legislation (the ZEV mandate requires that a rising proportion of new cars sold are electric).
Nothard said: “Multiple factors, not least legislative direction, have [made] the proportion of petrol and diesel car registrations decline year on year with increasing velocity and a level of consequence that I don’t think has been widely appreciated.
“Today’s market for cars aged 0-4 years differs significantly from 2020 and will contrast even more so in 2028.
“Manufacturers will continue to be driven by legislation rather than consumer demand and ICE will be all but gone from the UK new car market long before the 2035 deadline.”
This will likely push the price of ICE stock up too, closing the gap to EVs and inadvertently making them a more attractive proposition, predicts Cox.
Battle for the best stock
Cox forecasts that battles will erupt over who can obtain the best stock, given the high demand for ICE cars.
Another key to this is fewer cars in the current used car parc, mainly down to a halt on production during the Covid pandemic and the resulting parts supply issues.
“It’s almost impossible to overstate the shift in the UK car parc over the past four years and how that change will continue to accelerate over the next four years and beyond,” said Nothard.
“For dealers, this means a battle for the best stock. For consumers, it means diminishing choice and above-inflation price increases.”
However, Nothard added: “Our forecast is based on today’s knowns, but we accept the trajectory could change as technology evolves, governments change and the impact of the Chinese [manufacturers’] volume-at-all-costs strategy becomes known.
“Potential scenarios are a steeper acceleration of EV penetration than anticipated and the advancement of hybrid technology resulting in a greater emphasis on this fuel type within the mix, or even throwing petrol a longer lifeline via mild-hybrid improvements.”
Target hybrids
Instead of ICE cars, the forecaster is pushing dealers to target hybrids, mainly for their higher margins, for their good availability and because they offer partial electric benefits without compromising on range or refuelling.
This is prudent, because hybrid sales are predicted to represent 25% of registrations (two million sales) by 2028, with stock expected to be priced more competitively than EVs on the used car market.
“Two in every five new cars joining the UK car parc this year forecast to be EV or hybrid,” Nothard said. “With that proportion destined to grow rapidly in future years, used car dealers need to prepare now for changes in market dynamics that arguably rival those experienced during the pandemic in terms of complexity and impact.”
Nail in the coffin for diesel
As has long been expected, diesel sales are set to reach their nadir by 2028, making up just 3% of the market.
Cars sold with the powertrain have gradually dwindled in the UK, with a number of manufacturers (such as BMW) slashing their diesel offerings as sales decline.
However, in December 2023, diesel car sales actually rose 12%, briefly interrupting a decline that began back in 2016.
Key to this is the premium market, with sales remaining robust; premium models account for four of the five best-selling diesels.
JLR (formerly Jaguar Land Rover), by far the biggest seller of diesels in the UK, is the main car marker reaping the rewards of this: Land Rover diesel sales doubled year on year in January to more than 2700, led by the Defender.
This trend isn’t expected to continue, though. “Quite simply, diesel variants are currently drawing their last breath,” Nothard concluded.
